Wednesday, 16 December 2009
With the Canadian Real Estate Association's release of November housing numbers Tuesday, talk of a bubble is heating up among economists and industry professionals.
The CREA report said existing homes sales in November increased by a whooping 73 per cent compared to a year ago and prices rose almost 20 per cent.
"We're on the bubble of a bubble," Bank of Montreal economist Doug Porter told The National Post, sharing his worry about a potential surge of home sales before the central bank raises rates and the new harmonized sales tax is introduced in B.C. and Ontario. "We could see a bit of a buying frenzy coming this spring...followed by a "pop" in 2011?"
But despite continued fears that skyrocketing numbers signal the formation of an asset bubble, some insiders said the dramatic rise is due to how low the market was at this time last year. The number of listings also went up by five per cent from October to November, which is expected to help ease price increases.
"The numbers look huge, but you are coming off such a bad year," TD Securities economics strategist Millan Mulraine told The Globe and Mail. "You're seeing big numbers in the recovery, but the pace and momentum has eased. You could definitely say it's not driving as fast as it was a few months ago."
Another argument against a bubble came from Genworth Financial Canada president Peter Vukanovich, who told The National Post that because more consumers have been switching into fixed rate mortgage products, they will be less exposed to expected interest rate hikes.
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